DFR Releases Weekly COVID-19 Data and Modeling Update for the Week of June 26 to July 1

02 July 2020

Montpelier, VT – The Department of Financial Regulation (DFR) today released its weekly COVID-19 data and modeling update for Vermont. There is no public presentation this week due to the 4th of July holiday.

“This week Vermont reported 36 new COVID-19 cases, a 35% reduction from the previous week,” said DFR Commissioner Michael Pieciak. “Further, Vermont’s four restart metrics continue to trend favorably, and our forecasts indicate we should continue to see low case growth in the weeks ahead.”   

Selected highlights from the presentation include:

Vermont’s seven-day average test positivity is 0.4 percent, the lowest in the United States. Connecticut, the second-lowest state in the country, recorded a seven-day average test positivity rate of 0.87 percent.

The number of free ICU beds in Vermont immediately available this week returned above the 30% buffer recommended by the Vermont Department of Health. Vermont has not had a COVID-19-positive patient in the ICU since May 24.

The Northeast saw a 7.6% reduction in new COVID-19 cases compared to last week. Weekly data normalized per capita for New England and New York shows Vermont continues to experience the lowest levels of new infections and deaths in the Northeast.

National trends indicate pronounced case growth in the South where both seven-day growth averages and cumulative cases have now eclipsed the Northeast during its initial peak in April.

“Although COVID-19 cases in the Northeast remained stable this week, much of the U.S. experienced an increase in new cases, including states on the perimeter of our expanded travel map,” said Commissioner Pieciak. “This serves as a reminder we are not immune from national trends and Vermonters should continue to follow public health guidance while they celebrate the holiday weekend.”      

Travel Policy Highlights:

  • The number of individuals in the Northeast eligible for travel to Vermont without a quarantine remained stable this week at 6.2 million.
  • The entire applicable travel zone, which now covers all states within a reasonable driving distance of Vermont, however, saw the number of individuals eligible for travel to Vermont without a quarantine fall from 19 million to 13.5 million.
  • Much of the decline was due to a rise in active cases in counties in Maryland, Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, and Virginia.

The full presentation is available on DFR website: https://dfr.vermont.gov/document/covid-19-modeling-july-2-2020.

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